by Ahmed E. Souaiaia*

 

ISIL fighters
It is evident at this point that Syria’s war is not a civil
war. It is a world war and now the two superpowers, the U.S. and Russia emerged
out of the shadows of their regional allies to take charge. Early this year,
the two countries reached an agreement called Cessation of Hostilities (CH),
initially effecting select cities but open to be applied across Syria.  The Cessation of Hostilities is simply a
bilateral understanding between the U.S. and Russia. It is not a peace accord
nor is it an armistice. It is something in between necessitated by the complex
map of groups fighting the Syrian government. This CH automatically excluded
any and all groups labelled terrorists by the UNSC, including the self-proclaimed
Islamic State and its offshoot, al-Nusra Front. In theory, any armed opposition
group can be party to this deal provided its members–or a representative
thereof–contact monitoring centers staffed by Russian personnel, since
Americans are not authorized by the Syrian government to be on Syrian soil,
overtly at least. The deal worked in bring some calm to some areas and gave
many Syrians some hope.

Earlier, al-Nusra Front, fearing isolation, merged with other
groups forming Jaysh al-Fath. With the start of the CH regime on February 27,
2016, al-Nusra used this alliance to launch attacks in northern Syria,
virtually collapsing the CH regime. This week, Secretary Kerry announced a new plan,
perhaps just and updated one, that could put Syria back on track for a
political solution. It might actually work. There are a number of reasons for our
optimism.
One of the main reasons behind the failure to solve the crisis
in Syria lies in the nature, composition, and regional sponsors of the Syrian
opposition. The strongest opposition groups are extremist Salafists and
fighters affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. The three main supporters of
the Syrian opposition fighters, Qatar and Turkey (strong supporters of the
Muslim Brotherhood) and Saudi Arabia (sponsor of Salafism), have insisted from
the start that the overthrow of Assad supersedes the defeat of al-Qaeda and its
derivatives (mainly ISIL, al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, and Jaysh al-Islam). These
three countries have principally nothing in common except their shared disdain for
Assad. Consequently, their alliance of convenience could not last. So it did
not.
Within a year or so, and seeing that Russia and China twice
blocked UNSC resolutions that could have authorized the use of force against
the Syrian government, the Qatari ruler, Hamad Ibn Khalifa Al Thani, realized
that that path he has taken was very difficult. The Emir abdicated and
transferred power to his son, Tamim. This move offered the tiny but influential
country a way out of a crisis it cannot manage and left Saudi Arabia and Turkey
leading the efforts to overthrow Assad.
Initially, these two countries, despite their differences
over the status of the regime in Egypt and position on the Muslim Brotherhood politics
and ideology, decided to stay united on Syria. Their strategy consisted of
continued support to rebel groups, initially organized under a loose umbrella organization
called the Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighting under the green and black flag, to
ensure the fall of the Syrian government, not weaken any of them. The transfer
of arms and money supposedly to the FSA, somehow, benefitted al-Nusra and ISIL,
too. Within months from the start of the armed conflict, the FSA became all but
a shell that provided cover to ISIL and al-Nusra. When the latter two groups
grew confident and self-sufficient, they abandoned the FSA flag, raising their
own black flags over large territories, forcing FSA groups out.  
When ISIL declared its caliphate and took control of key
cities and provinces in Syria and Iraq, the U.S. formed a coalition dedicated to
fighting ISIL, essentially creating two kinds of opposition groups in Syria:
ISIL and the “legitimate opposition.” However, the U.S. and its allies
conveniently avoided defining “legitimate” opposition.
In theory, this coalition was to fight ISIL, exclusively. In
reality, the this coalition has had two objectives. The coalition bombed ISIL
territories from the air, but also provided weapons and training for the
so-called “moderate rebels” who would fight both–the Syrian government and
ISIL. The efforts paid off on both fronts. While the air campaign limited ISIL
advances, the influx of sophisticated weapons to “moderate” fighters, including
al-Nusra, allowed them to take over territories previously under government
control, threatening even Assad’s stronghold, Syria’s coastal region. This
prompted Russia to send troops and airplanes, upon a request from Assad, to
help him regain control of the territories his troops lost. He did regain
control within about five months. Russia’s intervention created a new balance of
power. Importantly, it also offered the anti-ISIL coalition a channel through
which to talk to the Syrian government.
The Russian intervention in Syria created a unique challenge
for Turkey, especially, since it benefited from Syria’s oil sold by ISIL and
was able to limit Kurdish gains. Russia’s intervention strengthened the Syrian
Kurds and shut down the flow of Syrian oil. Turkey, reacted angrily, shooting
down a Russia bomber near its border with Syria, prompting President Putin to
impose crippling economic sanctions and grounding Turkish planes with the
insertion of Russia’s sophisticated S-400 anti-aircraft weapon system. These
measures forced Turkey’s powerful president to rethink his approach to the
Syrian crisis. After nearly five months of refusing to apologize for the
incident, Erdogan sent a letter to Putin doing just that and urging Putin to
normalize relations. Putin obliged, lifting the ban on travel to Turkey and
promising to consider other steps once Turkish authorities take actual steps to
address other concerns.
Turkey’s economic and security woes, made real by the July
15 failed coup, have forced the Turkish president to speed up his rapprochement
with Russia. His office announced that he will travel to Saint Petersburg on
August 9, where he will meet Putin to put their bilateral relations back on
track. However, normalizing relations with Russia necessarily requires Turkey
to drop its demand for overthrowing Assad and fight terrorism instead. That
much was made clear by the Russian leaders upon receiving Erdogan’s letter of
apology. Erdogan’s unhappiness with U.S. and European governments may compel
him to, minimally take a neutral position regarding the fate of Assad, or side
with Russia to maximize return from his overture on Russia. Either of those
outcomes will reduce the anti-Assad alliance to one country, Saudi Araba.
The shift in Turkey’s position on Syria is making the rulers
of Saudi Arabia nervous since they will be the only ones insisting on
prioritizing ousting Assad over fighting terrorist entities. Signs that Saudi
Arabia is feeling the isolation already emerged during the last Arab League
Summit held this week in Mauritania. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have set
the agenda and tone of the outcome of the League’s summit in the past five
years. This time, however, Saudi Arabia failed not only to have the Syrian
opposition represent Syria during the meeting, but also failed to convince the
League to invite it even as observer–a huge change compared to the summit held
in Qatar when Syria’s seat was filled by the head of the Syrian opposition, Moaz
al-Khatib.
In addition to this game-changer event involving Turkey, a couple
of other events created new conditions that are forcing key parties to the armed
conflict in Syria to adjust their roles and expectations.
First, Iraq’s success in retaking Fallujah in a relatively
short fight against ISIL dispelled the notion of invincibility projected by
that puritan group and its supporters. Should the Iraqi forces succeed in
retaking Mosul, ISIL will be practically out of Iraq and will resort to suicidal
terrorist attacks against Iraqi civilians. Without dislodging ISIL from major
cities in Syria, the threat of terrorist attacks will be significant. Moreover,
Iraqi gains could be easily reversed should ISIL remain in control of cities
and towns along the Syrian borders. Iraqi leaders know this and to prevent that
from happening, they announced that they will work with the Syrian government to
help the latter retake the city of Raqqa and Deir al-Zor.
Second, the rise of the number of terrorist attacks in Europe,
the U.S., and other countries is forcing more people in countries that ignored ISIL
in the past to push their governments to focus on fighting terrorism–not on
overthrowing the Syrian government.
These significant changes are keeping U.S. top diplomat,
Secretary Kerry, very busy adjusting U.S. strategy on Syria. He travelled to Russia
spending about ten hours with Putin and an additional four hours with his
counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. On Tuesday, Kerry said that he will be in a
position to announce a robust plan for coordinating efforts with Russia on
Syria early next month, signaling the significance of the agreement he reached
with the Russian leaders, which would require review and approval by his boss,
President Obama, and national security policymakers.
The outstanding problem between the U.S. and Russia has been
the lack of coordination of military efforts fighting terrorism in Syria. The
U.S. and its allies are insisting on limiting military strikes to ISIL. Russia
wants to fight ISIL and other terrorist groups, including al-Nusra and Ahrar
al-Sham. Although the U.S. recognizes al-Nusra as a terrorist organization, it had
not targeted it, perhaps out of respect for some of its allies who are known
supporters of al-Nusra and the allies of al-Nusra.
Publicly however, the U.S. administration justified its
exclusion of al-Nusra from military strikes by arguing that territories
controlled by al-Nusra and “legitimate” opposition are mixed. Russia is not
convinced because it is using a different standard. Russian leaders want the
Cessations of Hostilities regime to be the determining factor of who should be
targeted and who should not be targeted. They argue that if the opposition groups
are committed to a political solution, they should stop fighting and move out
of the areas controlled by fighters who reject a political solution. The new
plan, which will include at least part of Russia’s reasoning, will enable U.S.
and Russia to bypass their differences over the identity of terrorist entities
and the fate of Assad. Should the new plan use this criterion, terrorist groups
will not be able to avoid being targeted by changing their names or breaking
their public affiliation with known terrorist organizations.
A new strategy that takes into considerations these complex
issues would replace the untenable, self-serving one proposed by the backers of
the opposition groups who argued that the Syrian regime will not agree to a
political solution unless the opposition forces gain the upper hand.  Five years of relying on a strategy of
indiscriminately arming and assisting all groups fighting the Syrian government
forces to attain that questionable goal did not work. A strategy that calls on
a political dialogue involving only groups that agree to Cessations of Hostilities
might work. This strategy could even allow U.S. and Russian military to work
together on stabilizing a region in so much need for peace and development.
___________________________
* Prof. SOUAIAIA teaches at the University of Iowa. His
most recent book, Anatomy of Dissent in Islamic Societies, provides a
historical and theoretical treatment of rebellious movements and ideas since
the rise of Islam. Opinions are the author’s, speaking on matters of public
interest; not speaking for the university or any other organization with which
he is affiliated.
https://i1.wp.com/majalla.org/press/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/ISIL_fighters.png?fit=400%2C223https://i1.wp.com/majalla.org/press/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/ISIL_fighters.png?resize=150%2C150EditorsSelected ContentAll,International Affairs,Kurdistan,Russia,Syria,Turkey,War and Peaceby Ahmed E. Souaiaia*   ISIL fighters It is evident at this point that Syria’s war is not a civil war. It is a world war and now the two superpowers, the U.S. and Russia emerged out of the shadows of their regional allies to take charge. Early this year, the two countries reached...